BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Friday said that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the Pacific, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean could create a regional heat season with the possibility of heatwaves, gradually ramping up, but unlikely to match 2023 and 2024.
ENSO is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOf said in May, the occurrence of high evaporation rates, short dry spells and the possible buildup of any ongoing drought increases heat and wildfire potential and that rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise in May in the Bahamas, Guianas and Greater Antilles or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles.
CariCOF said that from May to July, the conditions could result in a high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and associated impacts.
“Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent; the more frequent, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather, including intense tropical cyclone activity,” it added.
CariCOF said that for the three months, the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts arising from runoff during intense rainfall events will be high, particularly in mountainous areas and the Guianas.
It said water recharge rates in surface reservoirs and rivers will likely rapidly accelerate, particularly in the Guianas.
“Rise in wet day frequency to increasingly disrupt outdoor tourism activities, make conditions conducive to moisture-related pests, but dampen wildfire potential.”
CariCOF said that as of April 1, moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in northwestern parts of The Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Central Cuba, southwest Dominican Republic, Haiti, Sint Maarten and long-term drought in northern Bahamas, southwest Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, northwest Trinidad, St Vincent and northwest Suriname.