An increase in rainfall events and amounts is possible from April into May (medium to high
confidence). Increased frequency of wet and extremely wet days and spells are likely (medium to high confidence). These conditions are expected to continue well throughout the upcoming wet season (June to November) thus increasing the chances for life-threatening hazards such as flash floods, landslides, and rockfalls across the island.
Heat concerns are expected to begin as early as April and continue well into October/ November 2024 leading to yet another year where heat stress and other heat-related complications are possible.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to come to an early start with higher chances for above-normal activities.
What drives these conditions?
✓ Recent observations showed a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions in the
Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the April-May-June 2024 season (79% chance)
with increasing chances of La Niña evolving during the June-July-August season (55%
chance). These phases usually lead to wetter conditions across the Eastern Caribbean and
an active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
✓ Additionally, warmer than usual Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to be
maintained across the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. This is expected
to continue during the upcoming season. Warmer than usual SSTs often result in warmer
than usual air temperatures, a more humid environment, and an increased frequency of
rainfall events which could be extreme. It also provides fuel to tropical cyclones which
could lead to the intensification of systems.
Considering the aforementioned, the Dominica Meteorological Service wishes to advise the
general public and all climate-sensitive sectors to begin all the necessary plans and preparations for a wetter and hotter-than-usual period. Flooding and landslides usually occur with extreme and prolonged rainfall events. Also, hurricane preparedness activities should be done as early as possible to minimize last-minute rush. Attention should be paid to the daily updates issued by the Dominica Meteorological Service.
The service also provides a sub-seasonal forecast which is posted on the website www.weather.gov.dm/climate/climate-forecast/sub-seasonal-forecast)
weekly. This forecast provides information on weekly rainfall exceedance and temperature
probabilities for two weeks. This can then be enhanced with the daily weather
forecast.
The Met Service will continue to provide up-to-date information which we hope will help in timely decision making which will help save lives and properties.
Issued by:
The Climatological Department
Dominica Meteorological Service